Vladimir Dergachev GEOPOLITICAL TRANSFORMATION OF THE NORTH-EAST ASIA . — "VESTNIK ANALITIKI" (Russia), 2010, №1 (39).
1. In the latest half a century, the world politics underwent the tectonic shifts of forming new Greater Geopolitical Spaces that include the countries or their certain regions. After the Soviet Union’s geopolitical suicide, the American project of ‘democratizing’ Eurasia was introduced and revealed itself in attempts to build up the Greater Middle East, Greater Central Asia, and Greater Southern Asia. The project provided for introducing the American democratic values into the chosen region and for protecting the American economic interests from the position of military-political power. It is becoming obvious, that (aside from the successful setting-up zones of instability along the boundaries of the Eurasian civilizations) the project has comes to grief. The Greater geopolitical space of North-East Asia, which is ‘under the construction’, still remains in the shadow. 2. The balance of geopolitical forces in the North-East Asia has changed, with the second, third and eleventh world economies located there (Japan, China and South Korea). Against the weakening USA and Russia, these countries follow more independent foreign policy in terms of the regional interests. South Korea increases the foreign trade turnover with China and softens its policy towards North Korea. With the rise of Chinese economic power, Japan’s positions in the North-East Asia declined. Today, Beijing becomes the basic source of the financial assistance to many Asian countries. The regional economic transformation is marked with growing integration between China, Japan and South Korea, that reduces the expectancy of their confrontation and maintains the status quo. 3. Russia is still guided by the inefficient policy in the Far East, it has lost the geo-economical initiative in the region: the time works in favor of China. The economic growth demands energy and other resources, and that gives more incentives for the Chinese economic expansion, uppermost, to the Central Asia, Siberia and the Russian Far East. The population of China exceeds that of Russia tenfold. At that, China borders the least populated Russian territory. The Russian Far East is under the demographic pressure from the Celestial’s north-east provinces that are experiencing the economic boom. The city of Harbin alone is more populated than the whole of Russian Far East. 4. It is becoming obvious, that to create the worthy quality of life for the people in the Russian Far East leaning just on the country’s West for support has proved to be a Utopia. Will the oligarch Russia be able to retain the Far East, and would its loss to be a big tragedy for the corrupted ‘elite within the law’? With the high degree of certainty it might be stated - no. If the 25-million-strong Russian Island would break away practically imperceptibly. Russia had repeatedly experienced the periods of discords, but in the critical moments of history it could brace itself to bridge the split in the geography and in the soul. Let it be hoped, the great power will find a worthy way out this time as well. The future of the Russian Far East in the North-East Asia will be determined by the strategic vision prevailing over the tactical problems of struggle for power or its preservation.
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